Pre-reg cohort quality vs post-launch paid cohort quality

Pre-registration users are not a proxy for paid UA quality. Google Play defines pre-registration Conversions as pre-registered users who installed within 14 days of availability (pre-registration help). That cohort opted into a listing before gameplay existed; post-launch paid cohorts responded to a different creative and store state.

Define the calculation (labelled synthetic)

Keep columns separate:

• prereg_installs, prereg_d7_retainers, prereg_d7_payers
• paid_installs, paid_d7_retainers, paid_d7_payers

Rates:

• d7_retention = retainers / installs
• d7_payer_rate = payers / installs

Never blend the denominators when judging channel payback.

Worked synthetic example

Pre-reg looks stronger on retention; paid looks stronger on early payer rate. Either can be true for a title — the lab’s point is the split, not a universal ranking.

Limits

Synthetic inputs only. Play’s conversion window is the official definition used for the pre-reg column. MMP revenue bridging is out of scope.

Download the artifact.

Research checked 20 September 2026. Local draft; human editorial review pending.